Everyone has ideas about why people behave as they do, but intuition alone cannot tell us whether those ideas are actually true.
Cognitive biases are patterns of thinking that can lead us to incorrect conclusions, which is why we can't simply trust our own observations.
Confirmation bias, hindsight bias, and overconfidence all show the same point: something can feel obvious and still be wrong.
Psychologists rely on scientific research — asking questions, designing research, analyzing data, and drawing conclusions from evidence — rather than intuition alone.
Key terms
psychology
The scientific study of behavior and mental processes — how we act, think, and feel.
cognitive biases
Patterns of thinking that can lead us to incorrect conclusions.
confirmation bias
The tendency to notice and remember evidence that confirms what we already believe while overlooking evidence that contradicts it.
hindsight bias
The tendency to believe, after an outcome is known, that we knew it all along.
overconfidence
The tendency to be more confident in our judgments than the evidence actually justifies.